A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
